Generalized Regression Neural Network for Prediction of Peak Outflow from Dam Breach

Saad Sh Sammen, T. A. Mohamed, A. H. Ghazali, A. H. El-Shafie, Lariyah Mohd Sidek

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Several techniques have been used for estimation of peak outflow from breach when dam failure occurs. This study proposes using a generalized regression artificial neural network (GRNN) model as a new technique for peak outflow from the dam breach estimation and compare the results of GRNN with the results of the existing methods. Six models have been built using different dam and reservoir characteristics, including depth, volume of water in the reservoir at the time of failure, the dam height and the storage capacity of the reservoir. To get the best results from GRNN model, optimized for smoothing control factor values has been done and found to be ranged from 0.03 to 0.10. Also, different scenarios for dividing data were considered for model training and testing. The recommended scenario used 90% and 10% of the total data for training and testing, respectively, and this scenario shows good performance for peak outflow prediction compared to other studied scenarios. GRNN models were assessed using three statistical indices: Mean Relative Error (MRE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Nash – Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The results indicate that MRE could be reduced by using GRNN models from 20% to more than 85% compared with the existing empirical methods.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)549-562
Number of pages14
JournalWater Resources Management
Volume31
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 01 Jan 2017

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Dams
outflow
artificial neural network
dam
Neural networks
prediction
dam failure
Testing
smoothing
Mean square error
Water
water
method

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Water Science and Technology

Cite this

Sammen, Saad Sh ; Mohamed, T. A. ; Ghazali, A. H. ; El-Shafie, A. H. ; Mohd Sidek, Lariyah. / Generalized Regression Neural Network for Prediction of Peak Outflow from Dam Breach. In: Water Resources Management. 2017 ; Vol. 31, No. 1. pp. 549-562.
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Generalized Regression Neural Network for Prediction of Peak Outflow from Dam Breach. / Sammen, Saad Sh; Mohamed, T. A.; Ghazali, A. H.; El-Shafie, A. H.; Mohd Sidek, Lariyah.

In: Water Resources Management, Vol. 31, No. 1, 01.01.2017, p. 549-562.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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