Flood Forecasting via Time Lag Forward Network; Kelantan, Malaysia

Milad Jajarmizadeh, Lariyah Mohd Sidek, Hidayah Bte Basri, Aminah Shakira Jaffar

Research output: Contribution to journalConference article

Abstract

Forecasting water level is one of the critical issues in Malaysia for Kelantan region. Based on the flood events in 2014, this study investigates the hourly-forecasting of water level in one station namely Kg Jenob in Kelantan. For this issue, Time Lag Forward Network (TLFN) is evaluated for forecasting the water level as dynamic model. Heuristic method in stepwise forward methodology is performed. Rainfall and water level are the input and output of the modelling respectively. For selected flood period 15/12/2014 to 30/12/2014, 8 scenarios are developed to obtain a minimum error in water level forecasting. By monitoring the error, it will show that the optimum configuration of network has 2 processors in hidden layer and 7 lags have enough contribution on the result of hourly forecasting. Transfer functions in hidden and output layers are is Tangent hyperbolic and bias. Observed and simulated data are compared with usual error criteria called Mean Square Error (MSE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) which obtained 0.005 and 0.07 respectively. In conclusion, this study will be as a baseline for Kelantan to show that TLFN has promising result to forecast the flood events.

Original languageEnglish
Article number012043
JournalIOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
Volume32
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 19 Apr 2016
Event2nd International Conference on Advances in Renewable Energy and Technologies, ICARET 2016 - Putrajaya, Malaysia
Duration: 23 Feb 201625 Feb 2016

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flood forecasting
water level
heuristics
transfer function
rainfall
methodology
monitoring
modeling

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

Cite this

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title = "Flood Forecasting via Time Lag Forward Network; Kelantan, Malaysia",
abstract = "Forecasting water level is one of the critical issues in Malaysia for Kelantan region. Based on the flood events in 2014, this study investigates the hourly-forecasting of water level in one station namely Kg Jenob in Kelantan. For this issue, Time Lag Forward Network (TLFN) is evaluated for forecasting the water level as dynamic model. Heuristic method in stepwise forward methodology is performed. Rainfall and water level are the input and output of the modelling respectively. For selected flood period 15/12/2014 to 30/12/2014, 8 scenarios are developed to obtain a minimum error in water level forecasting. By monitoring the error, it will show that the optimum configuration of network has 2 processors in hidden layer and 7 lags have enough contribution on the result of hourly forecasting. Transfer functions in hidden and output layers are is Tangent hyperbolic and bias. Observed and simulated data are compared with usual error criteria called Mean Square Error (MSE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) which obtained 0.005 and 0.07 respectively. In conclusion, this study will be as a baseline for Kelantan to show that TLFN has promising result to forecast the flood events.",
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Flood Forecasting via Time Lag Forward Network; Kelantan, Malaysia. / Jajarmizadeh, Milad; Mohd Sidek, Lariyah; Basri, Hidayah Bte; Jaffar, Aminah Shakira.

In: IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, Vol. 32, No. 1, 012043, 19.04.2016.

Research output: Contribution to journalConference article

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