Application of fuzzy inference rules to early semi-automatic estimation of activity duration in software project management

Chin Hooi Tan, Keem Siah Yap, Hisao Ishibuchi, Yusuke Nojima, Hwa Jen Yap

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

10 Citations (Scopus)


Expert judgment is widely used for activity duration estimation in software project management. While there are both advantages and disadvantages of expert judgment-based estimation, we propose the use of fuzzy inference rules for semi-automatic estimation to reduce the potential negative aspects of the expert judgment-based estimation. Fourteen fuzzy inference rules are introduced to elicit and adjust expert tacit knowledge, and expert judgment-based estimation results are complemented by fuzzy inference rules. The results from expert judgment and fuzzy inference rules are compared with the expert judgment-based approach using surveys and one-on-one interviews with project managers from different disciplines through analyses with data from past software projects. The use of fuzzy inference rules improves the estimation accuracy of the expert judgment-based approach by 39.35%. The proposed approach facilitates the experts to derive a more realistic and reliable activity duration estimation in software project management.

Original languageEnglish
Article number6818430
Pages (from-to)678-688
Number of pages11
JournalIEEE Transactions on Human-Machine Systems
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - 01 Oct 2014


All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Human Factors and Ergonomics
  • Control and Systems Engineering
  • Signal Processing
  • Human-Computer Interaction
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Artificial Intelligence

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