An Evaluation Of Existent Methods For Estimationof Embankment Dam Breach Parameters

Lariyah Mohd Sidek, Saad Sh Sammen, T. A. Mohamed, A. H. Ghazali, A. El-Shafie

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Abstract

The study of dambreak
analysis is considered important to predict the peak
discharge during dam failure. This is essential to assess economic, social and
environmental impacts downstream and to prepare the emergency response
plan. Dam breach parameters such as breach width, breach height and breach
formation time are the key variables to estimate the peak discharge during dam
break. This study presents the evaluation of existing methods for estimation of
dam breach parameters. Since all of these methods adopt regression analysis,
uncertainty analysis of these methods becomes necessary to assess their
performance. Uncertainty was performed using the data of more than 140 case
studies of past recorded failures of dams, collected from different sources in the
literature. The accuracy of the existing methods was tested, and the values of
mean absolute relative error were found to be ranging from 0.39 to 1.05 for dam
breach width estimation and from 0.6 to 0.8 for dam failure time estimation. In
this study, artificial neural network (ANN) was recommended as an alternate
method for estimation of dam breach parameters. The ANN method is proposed
due to its accurate prediction when it was applied to similar other cases in water
resources.
Original languageEnglish
Article number10.1007/s11069-017-2764-z
Pages (from-to)1-22
Number of pages22
JournalNatural Hazards
Volume0
Issue number0
Publication statusPublished - 01 Feb 2017

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Civil and Structural Engineering

Cite this

Mohd Sidek, L., Sammen, S. S., Mohamed, T. A., Ghazali, A. H., & El-Shafie, A. (2017). An Evaluation Of Existent Methods For Estimationof Embankment Dam Breach Parameters. Natural Hazards, 0(0), 1-22. [10.1007/s11069-017-2764-z].