An evaluation of existent methods for estimation of embankment dam breach parameters

Saad Sh Sammen, T. A. Mohamed, A. H. Ghazali, Lariyah Mohd Sidek, A. El-Shafie

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

The study of dam-break analysis is considered important to predict the peak discharge during dam failure. This is essential to assess economic, social and environmental impacts downstream and to prepare the emergency response plan. Dam breach parameters such as breach width, breach height and breach formation time are the key variables to estimate the peak discharge during dam break. This study presents the evaluation of existing methods for estimation of dam breach parameters. Since all of these methods adopt regression analysis, uncertainty analysis of these methods becomes necessary to assess their performance. Uncertainty was performed using the data of more than 140 case studies of past recorded failures of dams, collected from different sources in the literature. The accuracy of the existing methods was tested, and the values of mean absolute relative error were found to be ranging from 0.39 to 1.05 for dam breach width estimation and from 0.6 to 0.8 for dam failure time estimation. In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) was recommended as an alternate method for estimation of dam breach parameters. The ANN method is proposed due to its accurate prediction when it was applied to similar other cases in water resources.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)545-566
Number of pages22
JournalNatural Hazards
Volume87
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 01 May 2017

Fingerprint

embankment dam
dam
dam failure
peak discharge
artificial neural network
social impact
uncertainty analysis
parameter
evaluation
method
economic impact
regression analysis
environmental impact
water resource
prediction

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Water Science and Technology
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

Cite this

Sammen, Saad Sh ; Mohamed, T. A. ; Ghazali, A. H. ; Mohd Sidek, Lariyah ; El-Shafie, A. / An evaluation of existent methods for estimation of embankment dam breach parameters. In: Natural Hazards. 2017 ; Vol. 87, No. 1. pp. 545-566.
@article{8931977d10774e5b969040a4c654d274,
title = "An evaluation of existent methods for estimation of embankment dam breach parameters",
abstract = "The study of dam-break analysis is considered important to predict the peak discharge during dam failure. This is essential to assess economic, social and environmental impacts downstream and to prepare the emergency response plan. Dam breach parameters such as breach width, breach height and breach formation time are the key variables to estimate the peak discharge during dam break. This study presents the evaluation of existing methods for estimation of dam breach parameters. Since all of these methods adopt regression analysis, uncertainty analysis of these methods becomes necessary to assess their performance. Uncertainty was performed using the data of more than 140 case studies of past recorded failures of dams, collected from different sources in the literature. The accuracy of the existing methods was tested, and the values of mean absolute relative error were found to be ranging from 0.39 to 1.05 for dam breach width estimation and from 0.6 to 0.8 for dam failure time estimation. In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) was recommended as an alternate method for estimation of dam breach parameters. The ANN method is proposed due to its accurate prediction when it was applied to similar other cases in water resources.",
author = "Sammen, {Saad Sh} and Mohamed, {T. A.} and Ghazali, {A. H.} and {Mohd Sidek}, Lariyah and A. El-Shafie",
year = "2017",
month = "5",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1007/s11069-017-2764-z",
language = "English",
volume = "87",
pages = "545--566",
journal = "Natural Hazards",
issn = "0921-030X",
publisher = "Springer Netherlands",
number = "1",

}

An evaluation of existent methods for estimation of embankment dam breach parameters. / Sammen, Saad Sh; Mohamed, T. A.; Ghazali, A. H.; Mohd Sidek, Lariyah; El-Shafie, A.

In: Natural Hazards, Vol. 87, No. 1, 01.05.2017, p. 545-566.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - An evaluation of existent methods for estimation of embankment dam breach parameters

AU - Sammen, Saad Sh

AU - Mohamed, T. A.

AU - Ghazali, A. H.

AU - Mohd Sidek, Lariyah

AU - El-Shafie, A.

PY - 2017/5/1

Y1 - 2017/5/1

N2 - The study of dam-break analysis is considered important to predict the peak discharge during dam failure. This is essential to assess economic, social and environmental impacts downstream and to prepare the emergency response plan. Dam breach parameters such as breach width, breach height and breach formation time are the key variables to estimate the peak discharge during dam break. This study presents the evaluation of existing methods for estimation of dam breach parameters. Since all of these methods adopt regression analysis, uncertainty analysis of these methods becomes necessary to assess their performance. Uncertainty was performed using the data of more than 140 case studies of past recorded failures of dams, collected from different sources in the literature. The accuracy of the existing methods was tested, and the values of mean absolute relative error were found to be ranging from 0.39 to 1.05 for dam breach width estimation and from 0.6 to 0.8 for dam failure time estimation. In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) was recommended as an alternate method for estimation of dam breach parameters. The ANN method is proposed due to its accurate prediction when it was applied to similar other cases in water resources.

AB - The study of dam-break analysis is considered important to predict the peak discharge during dam failure. This is essential to assess economic, social and environmental impacts downstream and to prepare the emergency response plan. Dam breach parameters such as breach width, breach height and breach formation time are the key variables to estimate the peak discharge during dam break. This study presents the evaluation of existing methods for estimation of dam breach parameters. Since all of these methods adopt regression analysis, uncertainty analysis of these methods becomes necessary to assess their performance. Uncertainty was performed using the data of more than 140 case studies of past recorded failures of dams, collected from different sources in the literature. The accuracy of the existing methods was tested, and the values of mean absolute relative error were found to be ranging from 0.39 to 1.05 for dam breach width estimation and from 0.6 to 0.8 for dam failure time estimation. In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) was recommended as an alternate method for estimation of dam breach parameters. The ANN method is proposed due to its accurate prediction when it was applied to similar other cases in water resources.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85011309625&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85011309625&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s11069-017-2764-z

DO - 10.1007/s11069-017-2764-z

M3 - Article

VL - 87

SP - 545

EP - 566

JO - Natural Hazards

JF - Natural Hazards

SN - 0921-030X

IS - 1

ER -