An accurate medium-term load forecasting based on hybrid technique

Z. M. Yasin, Nur Fadilah Ab Aziz, N. A. Salim, N. A. Wahab, Nur Azzammudin Rahmat

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

An accurate medium term load forecasting is significant for power generation scheduling, economic and reliable operation in power system. Most of classical approach for medium term load forecasting only consider total daily load demand. This approach may not provide accurate results since the load demand is fluctuated in a day. In this paper, a hybrid Ant-Lion Optimizer Least-square Support Vector Machine (ALO-LSSVM) is proposed to forecast 24-hour load demand for the next year. Ant-Lion Optimizer (ALO) is utilized to optimize the RBF Kernel parameters in Least-Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM). The objective of the optimization is to minimize the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The performance of ALO-LSSVM technique was compared with those obtained from LS-SVM technique through a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. The historical hourly load data are analyzed and appropriate features are selected for the model. There are 24 inputs and 24 outputs vectors for this model which represents 24-hour load demand for whole year. The results revealed that the high accuracy of prediction could be achieved using ALO-LSSVM.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)161-167
Number of pages7
JournalIndonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Volume12
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 01 Jan 2018

Fingerprint

Load Forecasting
Least Squares Support Vector Machine
Support vector machines
Term
Cross-validation
Power System
Power generation
Percentage
Forecast
High Accuracy
Fold
Scheduling
Optimise
Economics
kernel
Minimise
Demand
Optimization
Prediction
Output

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Signal Processing
  • Information Systems
  • Hardware and Architecture
  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Control and Optimization
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Cite this

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An accurate medium-term load forecasting based on hybrid technique. / Yasin, Z. M.; Ab Aziz, Nur Fadilah; Salim, N. A.; Wahab, N. A.; Rahmat, Nur Azzammudin.

In: Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Vol. 12, No. 1, 01.01.2018, p. 161-167.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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