A combined probabilistic and deterministic method for an improved capacity outage probability table synthesis using Monte Carlo methods

A. H. Hashim, S. E.H. Chan, Mau Teng Au

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

An electrical power system is typically operated at least cost given some technical and reliability constraints. To that end, many utilities use deterministic methods such as n-1 criterion in order to ensure reliability. This method though being used worldwide and for a really long time can be expensive as contingencies occur rarely. In order to evaluate power systems, it must be noted that contingencies are stochastic in nature. Since reliability of supply and economic cost must be balanced, probabilistic analysis seems to be one of the tools which can be applied. In the case of generator dispatch, the most recognized probability tool is the Capacity Outage Probability Table (COPT). However, the synthesis of the COPT using the Recursive Method as proposed by Billinton and Allan can be cumbersome. This paper presents an integration of probabilistic and deterministic methods for outage analysis. It shows an alternative method to develop the COPT using a pseudo-deterministic method combined with a Monte Carlo method. Thus, making the process of developing a COPT simpler and can reduce computation time.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationICEE 2009 - Proceeding 2009 3rd International Conference on Energy and Environment
Subtitle of host publicationAdvancement Towards Global Sustainability
Pages140-144
Number of pages5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 01 Dec 2009
Event2009 3rd International Conference on Energy and Environment: Advancement Towards Global Sustainability, ICEE 2009 - Malacca, Malaysia
Duration: 07 Dec 200908 Dec 2009

Publication series

NameICEE 2009 - Proceeding 2009 3rd International Conference on Energy and Environment: Advancement Towards Global Sustainability

Other

Other2009 3rd International Conference on Energy and Environment: Advancement Towards Global Sustainability, ICEE 2009
CountryMalaysia
CityMalacca
Period07/12/0908/12/09

Fingerprint

Outages
Monte Carlo methods
Costs
Economics

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Environmental Engineering

Cite this

Hashim, A. H., Chan, S. E. H., & Au, M. T. (2009). A combined probabilistic and deterministic method for an improved capacity outage probability table synthesis using Monte Carlo methods. In ICEE 2009 - Proceeding 2009 3rd International Conference on Energy and Environment: Advancement Towards Global Sustainability (pp. 140-144). [5398656] (ICEE 2009 - Proceeding 2009 3rd International Conference on Energy and Environment: Advancement Towards Global Sustainability). https://doi.org/10.1109/ICEENVIRON.2009.5398656
Hashim, A. H. ; Chan, S. E.H. ; Au, Mau Teng. / A combined probabilistic and deterministic method for an improved capacity outage probability table synthesis using Monte Carlo methods. ICEE 2009 - Proceeding 2009 3rd International Conference on Energy and Environment: Advancement Towards Global Sustainability. 2009. pp. 140-144 (ICEE 2009 - Proceeding 2009 3rd International Conference on Energy and Environment: Advancement Towards Global Sustainability).
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Hashim, AH, Chan, SEH & Au, MT 2009, A combined probabilistic and deterministic method for an improved capacity outage probability table synthesis using Monte Carlo methods. in ICEE 2009 - Proceeding 2009 3rd International Conference on Energy and Environment: Advancement Towards Global Sustainability., 5398656, ICEE 2009 - Proceeding 2009 3rd International Conference on Energy and Environment: Advancement Towards Global Sustainability, pp. 140-144, 2009 3rd International Conference on Energy and Environment: Advancement Towards Global Sustainability, ICEE 2009, Malacca, Malaysia, 07/12/09. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICEENVIRON.2009.5398656

A combined probabilistic and deterministic method for an improved capacity outage probability table synthesis using Monte Carlo methods. / Hashim, A. H.; Chan, S. E.H.; Au, Mau Teng.

ICEE 2009 - Proceeding 2009 3rd International Conference on Energy and Environment: Advancement Towards Global Sustainability. 2009. p. 140-144 5398656 (ICEE 2009 - Proceeding 2009 3rd International Conference on Energy and Environment: Advancement Towards Global Sustainability).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

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AB - An electrical power system is typically operated at least cost given some technical and reliability constraints. To that end, many utilities use deterministic methods such as n-1 criterion in order to ensure reliability. This method though being used worldwide and for a really long time can be expensive as contingencies occur rarely. In order to evaluate power systems, it must be noted that contingencies are stochastic in nature. Since reliability of supply and economic cost must be balanced, probabilistic analysis seems to be one of the tools which can be applied. In the case of generator dispatch, the most recognized probability tool is the Capacity Outage Probability Table (COPT). However, the synthesis of the COPT using the Recursive Method as proposed by Billinton and Allan can be cumbersome. This paper presents an integration of probabilistic and deterministic methods for outage analysis. It shows an alternative method to develop the COPT using a pseudo-deterministic method combined with a Monte Carlo method. Thus, making the process of developing a COPT simpler and can reduce computation time.

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Hashim AH, Chan SEH, Au MT. A combined probabilistic and deterministic method for an improved capacity outage probability table synthesis using Monte Carlo methods. In ICEE 2009 - Proceeding 2009 3rd International Conference on Energy and Environment: Advancement Towards Global Sustainability. 2009. p. 140-144. 5398656. (ICEE 2009 - Proceeding 2009 3rd International Conference on Energy and Environment: Advancement Towards Global Sustainability). https://doi.org/10.1109/ICEENVIRON.2009.5398656